Nascent Arabian Sea cyclone may delay monsoon arrival-THE HINDU-30-05-2020
Uncertainty clouds the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala. Once the monsoon season sets in, there’s a certain uncertainty too in all weather models,” he added. Storms that develop in the sea begin as ‘Low Pressures’ and graduate to Depressions, Deep Depressions and then onto three categories of cyclone. The most recent being the Super Cyclone Amphan in the Bay of Bengal.
Another depression is likely to form in the Arabian Sea over the weekend but will turn towards Oman and not significantly influence the monsoon. While such depressions are normal during the advent of monsoon and usually aid the monsoon’s advent and progress in India, a particularly strong storm can hinder the monsoon. Last year, cyclone Vayu that formed in the Arabian Sea stalled the monsoon after it entered Kerala on June 8.
A key criteria to declaring the monsoon as having arrived is that at least 8 of 14 meteorological stations in Kerala and Karnataka consistently measure more than 2.5 mm of rains for two continuous days. Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, confidence that the monsoon will have set in latest by May 31. On May 15, he had forecast the monsoon’s arrival date as May 28.